Indonesia economic outlook 2023

Richard Burrage
Oct 13, 2023

Indonesia Economic Outlook 2023 explores the five reasons that Indonesia will prosper in the next decade.

Indonesia’s economy is on the right track. The Q2 2023 GDP data shows that it grew by 5% from the same quarter last year. Indonesia has not only bounced back to the pre-pandemic levels, but also surpassed them. As businesses grow, so does the size of workforce they can employ. This enables Indonesia’s substantial labor force to further contribute to this growth. The continuously increasing young and urban population also plays a significant role in this process.

5-minute read

Kenny Tirtawirya

Cimigo believes Indonesia’s economy will keep growing over the next ten years. There are five catalysts that we have identified that will propel this growth.

The Indonesia economic outlook 2023 report explores the five reasons that Indonesia will prosper in the next decade:

  1. Demographic edge: huge workforce with low dependency ratio.
  2. GDP growth rate has recovered to pre-pandemic level with a positive trend.
  3. Positive business sentiments and increased investment.
  4. The continuous recovery of retail.
  5. A flourishing digital economy and e-commerce.

Download the report here

1. Demogroaghic edge: A huge workforce with a low dependency ratio

Indonesia is a vast country, home to nearly 300 million people, with a positive growth rate of 1.13%. Approximately half of them are working-age population. A low dependency ratio of 0.6 per employed person indicates a substantial workforce supply, with the majority being relatively young (44% are aged 20 – 39 years old).

Productive age and urban population in Indonesia

Furthermore, there is a continuous urbanization of individuals in their productive age years. Therefore, the next challenge is to prepare them with the necessary qualifications and skills.

2. Indonesia economic outlook 2023: GDP growth rate has recovered to a positive trend

In Q2 of 2023, Indonesia enjoys a GDP growth of 5.2% compared to the same quarter in 2022. Industrial production grows by 4.9% and manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increases by 5% (Jun ’23 vs Jun ’22). Investment from outside of Indonesia is increasing, with a 47% increase in foreign direct investment disbursements. However, the trade surplus has suffered due to decrease in total value of exports and imports by 18% and 6% respectively.

Indonesian economic performance

Despite this setback, it is estimated that Indonesia will continue the positive trend overall and experience an approximate 5% increase in GDP in 2024.

Download the report here

Indonesia economic and consumer progress

As of the full year 2022, Indonesia, with a GDP of US$1.31 trillion, is ranked as the #16 largest economy in the world. However, Indonesia is still a developing nation. The GDP per capita is merely US$4,783, which is significantly lower than some other Southeast Asian countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. Only 49% of adults aged 18 years old or older have bank accounts, despite a 78% internet penetration rate. Nevertheless, Indonesia’s consumer market remains attractive to advertisers, who spend US$19 billion to reach them in 2022.

Recent development in Indonesian economy

Top contributing sectors to Indonesia’s GDP

In terms of contribution, the top contributors are manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and the trade sector. Export values of the first three sectors have been flourishing over the past two years. Notably, palm oil and coffee are among Indonesia’s top exported goods. Despite the decline compared to the same period in 2022, Indonesia is actively striving to achieve its target trade surplus for 2023, which is set at US$38.5 billion. A striking example of this effort is the 71% increase in total mining exports, driven by coal, copper ores, and lignite.

Growth of GDP by sector in Indonesia

In addition, there are notable gainers: transportation & warehousing and accommodation & F&B sectors. The number of vehicles operating in Indonesia is steadily increasing, and national motor vehicle production has also grown by 8.3%. Regarding the latter sector, there has been an increase in the number of visits by both international and domestic tourists to Indonesia over the past year. International tourist arrivals have surged by 250%, while domestic tourist visits have increased by 13%. The occupancy rate of starred hotels is at 47% with 3.75% growth, primarily driven by 4-stars and 5-stars hotels. People are choosing Indonesia as their holiday destination, and it is not limited to Bali alone. Interestingly, Riau and Jambi have also experienced over 5% growth in holiday trips.

3.  Positive business sentiment and increased investment

Indonesia entrepreneurs are displaying growing business confidence as indicated by an 18% increase of Business Tendency Index (BTI) during Q2 2023 compared to the same period last year. Sources of investment are relatively balanced between domestic and international origins. In addition to West Java, Central Sulawesi is also one of the provinces with a significant amount of investment.

Increase in Indonesia Business Tendency Index

Download the report here

4. Indonesia economic outlook 2023: Continuous recovery of retail

The retail sector continues to recover, now at US$455 billion in sales value. This figure is now higher than the pre-COVID condition. However, the growth rate remains modest with only 3% from 2021 to 2022, which is slightly below the 5.51% inflation rate for the same period.

Indonesia economic outlook 2023 retail sales value

5. Flourishing digital economy and e-commerce

Businesses are going digital and those who have done so, are continuing to do it. From 2021 to 2022, there was a 22% increase of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) in the overall digital economy, a clear indication that having digital presence yields both short-term and long-term benefits for businesses. 63% of Indonesians are making online purchases at least once a week, ranking Indonesia 6th in the world in this regard. Preferred e-commerce platforms are currently Shopee and Tokopedia, but we anticipate the rise of TikTok shop in the near future.

Indonesia economic outlook 2023 and digital economy

Download the report here

End.

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Hy Vu - Head of Research Department

Cimigo is one of the top research companies in Vietnam that provides very good services and actionable insights. We have the pleasure of working with Cimigo. With extensive knowledge of Vietnamese consumers, Cimigo keeps bringing value to our company. We look forward to working with them in the future.
Cimigo is one of the top research companies in Vietnam that provides very good services and actionable insights. We have the pleasure of working with Cimigo. With extensive knowledge of Vietnamese consumers, Cimigo keeps bringing value to our company. We look forward to working with them in the future.

Joe Nelson - New Zealand Consulate General

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The research provided by Cimigo provided our clients with very specific insights into consumer behaviour in Viet Nam. What I liked was the way Cimigo interpreted these insights to develop a clear call to action for our clients, which they are responding to with confidence.

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Cimigo conducted a large, nationally representative demand forecasting study in Vietnam for us, including a discreet choice component, to assess demand for potential new male contraceptives in development to support funding decisions by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The research was additionally complex by linking interviews with men and separate interviews with their female partners. The Cimigo team was were professional, knowledgeable and adaptive through the process of understanding our needs and collaborating to find solutions that would work, resulting in a very successful study.

York Spencer - Global Marketing Director

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I've had the pleasure to work with Richard and Cimigo over many years and across multiple markets. Cimigo was a key partner in our business decision making process including market entry strategy, brand positioning development, shopper insights, brand equity tracking, and consumer need state segmentation development. The Cimigo team are local market experts who understand consumer culture like no other. I would highly recommend them.

Laura Baines - Programmes Snr Manager

Cimigo is our go-to agency in Indonesia. They're great collaborators, work hard to meet our deliverables, and are a joy to work with.
Cimigo is our go-to agency in Indonesia. They're great collaborators, work hard to meet our deliverables, and are a joy to work with.

Mai Trang - Brand Manager of Romano

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Cimigo is the research agency that I appreciate for their expertise and customer service. Cimigo understand well the business context for each of project hence they can design the research to best fit with the objectives. The optimization on methodologies, sample size and questionnaire bring the value to the projects I have worked with them. Cimigo can go beyond data and give me valuable insights for each of research projects based on their knowledge and experience with the industry. All of these support me well to navigate the brand strategy in short term and long term.

Hanh Dang - Product Marketing Manager

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We partnered with Cimigo on assessing TET campaign launch focusing on improving booking through our platform. Cimigo, provided its customized campaign evaluation technique based on Cimigo Online Communities that fully meets our requirement in terms of type of respondents and expected timelines. The report provided insightful findings with benchmarks to identify the next course of action for launching the campaign. We will recommend Cimigo team and its Online communities for its quality reporting and scale of coverage.

Luan Nguyen - Market Research Team Leader

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Cimigo is a market research company with many experienced and knowledgeable experts that I have collaborated with. I absolutely trust their service quality.

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Cido have worked with Cimigo in Vietnam for more than 10 years. All our projects, both qualitative and quantitative, have been delivered in a timely manner with a high standard of quality throughout. Cimigo’s client service team has provided great support over the years which has ensured smooth project execution and helped us to deliver work on time and exceed our client’s expectations.

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I have partnered with Cimigo over the past 15 years. Most recently Cimigo engaged us to collaborate on an unusually tough new product development project, which was akin to selling ice to Eskimos. Cimigo bought alive the consumer, her shopping journey, her cooking rituals and potential brand promises. Cimigo inspired our creative team to build alternate brand propositions and accompanying package designs. Cimigo then went back to consumers to evaluate, iterate and optimise these in focus groups. The Doodle team were able to observe this process and subtly adjust the expression of the brand between focus groups. The result of this great collaboration was a winning brand proposition and packaging design that hit consumer needs head on whilst appealing to their hearts.

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We have worked together with Cimigo many times. The findings from Cimigo are factual, accurate & reliable. They deliver value from the voice of our customer so we can easily determine the next step. Working with Cimigo feels like not only building a partnership but a sense of family. Very amazing to work with Cimigo, they always go beyond our expectations.

Chad Ovel - Partner

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Cimigo digs deep to understand the key issues we need to address. Then, they quickly customize a highly suitable research approach to provide us the insights we need to achieve our breakthrough business targets. From tough questions to aha answers in just a few easy conversations!

Private English Language Schools - Chief Executive Officer

Our relationship with Cimigo goes back many years. We engaged Cimigo to provide an independent view on what our customers and potential customers think of our company. The insights from Cimigo were very helpful for us to better understand the Vietnam market and also in developing our brand manifesto.
Our relationship with Cimigo goes back many years. We engaged Cimigo to provide an independent view on what our customers and potential customers think of our company. The insights from Cimigo were very helpful for us to better understand the Vietnam market and also in developing our brand manifesto.

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As a creative director I have used the services of Cimigo for the past 15 years when developing communications, so I know their style, innovations and resources well. Most recently we tested copy for print, out of home and digital communications to put an Australian colloquialism into a Vietnamese context. A job and budget so small I felt it was highly likely to fall through the cracks. I was astounded at their incredible response. From their advice and style of how we should present the stimulus material, to their cross-reference manoeuvres used in the testing. Their over-delivering response, was to an embarrassing level. We walked away with a clear winner and could present back to our client with confidence and clarity. Cimigo made us look great. Plus they even threw in a few extra insights on the awareness and perception of the product in Vietnam.

Janine Katzberg - Projects Director

I want to thank you again for your help and the great job the Cimigo team did in the home appliance project! The moderation was super and organisation upfront was also perfect.
I want to thank you again for your help and the great job the Cimigo team did in the home appliance project! The moderation was super and organisation upfront was also perfect.

Anya Nipper - Project Coordination Director

It was a great pleasure working with you. Especially a big thank you for your flexibility, quality and brilliant service!
It was a great pleasure working with you. Especially a big thank you for your flexibility, quality and brilliant service!

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Cimigo have built and managed both our employee and customer experience programme since 2012. We have a complex suite of services with in-patient, out-patient, surgical, diagnostic, consultative and facilities to account for, all amongst patients who are naturally sensitive regarding their privacy and experience. Yet Cimigo have designed a system to measure customer experience across multiple languages and cultures and direct us in improving this experience. Our net promoter score (NPS) has grown as a direct result of changes implemented based on this direction and continuously listening to patient feedback. The NPS growth correlates directly to new patient numbers and improved profitability, as happier customers drives our business growth.
Cimigo have built and managed both our employee and customer experience programme since 2012. We have a complex suite of services with in-patient, out-patient, surgical, diagnostic, consultative and facilities to account for, all amongst patients who are naturally sensitive regarding their privacy and experience. Yet Cimigo have designed a system to measure customer experience across multiple languages and cultures and direct us in improving this experience. Our net promoter score (NPS) has grown as a direct result of changes implemented based on this direction and continuously listening to patient feedback. The NPS growth correlates directly to new patient numbers and improved profitability, as happier customers drives our business growth.

Joyce - Pricing Manager

We have worked with Cimigo recently and highly recommend them. Cimigo have made great recommendations on the price elasticity.
We have worked with Cimigo recently and highly recommend them. Cimigo have made great recommendations on the price elasticity.

Matt Thwaites - Commercial Director

Cimigo designed a customer experience programme for Coats that reached into Vietnamese, Chinese and Korean customers across various levels of seniority. Cimigo instilled the importance of the voice of the customer within our executive committee. This led to fundamental changes in our structure, services and speed to market. Significant investments were made behind these improvement programmes, for example in reducing delivery times and in managing specialised custom orders, which in turn have led to improved revenue streams and higher margin sales.
Cimigo designed a customer experience programme for Coats that reached into Vietnamese, Chinese and Korean customers across various levels of seniority. Cimigo instilled the importance of the voice of the customer within our executive committee. This led to fundamental changes in our structure, services and speed to market. Significant investments were made behind these improvement programmes, for example in reducing delivery times and in managing specialised custom orders, which in turn have led to improved revenue streams and higher margin sales.

Aashish Kapoor - Head of Marketing

Cimigo - The best “Glocal” market research firm in Vietnam with whom we have developed a great partnership since many years. While the quality of research and findings are of top standard, the added advantage being the local insights that Richard and his team are able to provide in helping us make important decisions.
Cimigo - The best “Glocal” market research firm in Vietnam with whom we have developed a great partnership since many years. While the quality of research and findings are of top standard, the added advantage being the local insights that Richard and his team are able to provide in helping us make important decisions.

Kelly Vo - Founder & Host

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I respect Cimigo not only because of their dedication, meticulousness, and high-quality services but also how much they care about the local community here. I proposed the idea of doing a survey with the digital young generation on the topic of social impact and leadership. I wanted to identify, shape, and develop our content so that could really speak to the heart of the problems and empower young Vietnamese to take action on social impact in Vietnam. The Cimigo team agreed pro-bono to help without hesitation. The research findings are truly helpful in providing us a deeper understanding of our targeted audiences, what they need and are concerned about in life. The results show us how we can help them to achieve their goals and dreams. It is no longer a shot in the dark!

Thanyachat Auttanukune - Board of Management

Cimigo consistently carries out researches with international standards and consistently bring about truly mind opening local insights.
Cimigo consistently carries out researches with international standards and consistently bring about truly mind opening local insights.

Hamish Glendinning - Business Lead

Cimigo not only delivered an exceptional piece of qualitative research for us, but provided hugely valuable direction when it came to product development and market positioning which we have since implemented. We can’t wait to work with the team again.
Cimigo not only delivered an exceptional piece of qualitative research for us, but provided hugely valuable direction when it came to product development and market positioning which we have since implemented. We can’t wait to work with the team again.

Thuy Le - Consumer Insight Manager

Pharmacity started a Brand Health Check with Cimigo in 2020 and we were immediately impressed with their great consultancy and supportive spirit. The study had interesting analysis and insights which helped us efficiently shape the marketing plan and direction moving forward. We are now working with Cimigo on a tracking basis to continuously monitor and foster our brand performance.
Pharmacity started a Brand Health Check with Cimigo in 2020 and we were immediately impressed with their great consultancy and supportive spirit. The study had interesting analysis and insights which helped us efficiently shape the marketing plan and direction moving forward. We are now working with Cimigo on a tracking basis to continuously monitor and foster our brand performance.

Richard Willis - Director

When we were looking to develop one of the worlds the leading economic indicator in Vietnam, the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) Cimigo showed an immediate understanding of our needs and showed their understanding of the Vietnamese market. IHS Markit has now been working with Cimigo since 2013. Every month Cimigo continues to provide high quality data, a representative panel, on time data and great customer service. We look forward to many more years of working together.
When we were looking to develop one of the worlds the leading economic indicator in Vietnam, the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) Cimigo showed an immediate understanding of our needs and showed their understanding of the Vietnamese market. IHS Markit has now been working with Cimigo since 2013. Every month Cimigo continues to provide high quality data, a representative panel, on time data and great customer service. We look forward to many more years of working together.

Ha Dinh - Project Lead

I have worked with CIMIGO on educational research for over 4 months. This is extremely impressive to me by the way CIMIGO approaches, cooperating and supporting me during the research launched. Specifically, the design for both qualitative and quantitative research are practical and logical with accurate questionnaires and appropriate interviews methodology for different respondents. Moreover, the outcomes of this research helps us to recognize our opportunities in the current English Language Training Market and understand profoundly our customer needs, behaviours and expectations when sending their children to us.
I have worked with CIMIGO on educational research for over 4 months. This is extremely impressive to me by the way CIMIGO approaches, cooperating and supporting me during the research launched. Specifically, the design for both qualitative and quantitative research are practical and logical with accurate questionnaires and appropriate interviews methodology for different respondents. Moreover, the outcomes of this research helps us to recognize our opportunities in the current English Language Training Market and understand profoundly our customer needs, behaviours and expectations when sending their children to us.

Geert Heestermans - Marketing Director

Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that.
Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that.

Louise Knox - Consumer Technical Insights

Just to say a huge thank you for all of the film footage. We are absolutely delighted with it all. The Vox Pops are really interesting and have turned out very well – those ladies were great at talking spontaneously. Cimigo did a great job. Thank you for your patience and perseverance with getting this off the ground.
Just to say a huge thank you for all of the film footage. We are absolutely delighted with it all. The Vox Pops are really interesting and have turned out very well – those ladies were great at talking spontaneously. Cimigo did a great job. Thank you for your patience and perseverance with getting this off the ground.

Aimee Shear - Senior Research Executive

We partnered up with the Cimigo team on what was a particularly challenging project – we were faced with numerous timeline delays and logistical concerns – yet Cimigo were incredibly accommodating through their patience, flexibility and commitment. Not only were Cimigo supportive during the set up of our project, but we were really impressed by the outputs delivered – Cimigo were insightful, rich and very comprehensive. Cimigo were brilliant partners to work with and we look forward to working with them again.
We partnered up with the Cimigo team on what was a particularly challenging project – we were faced with numerous timeline delays and logistical concerns – yet Cimigo were incredibly accommodating through their patience, flexibility and commitment. Not only were Cimigo supportive during the set up of our project, but we were really impressed by the outputs delivered – Cimigo were insightful, rich and very comprehensive. Cimigo were brilliant partners to work with and we look forward to working with them again.

Dennis Kurnia - Head of Consumer Insights

Over the last 5 years I have worked with Cimigo on a wide array of projects, ranging from market segmentation to product testing. At all times, I found Cimigo to be swift in response and providing high quality insights and business recommendations applicable to our business. Furthermore, I am satisfied with Cimigo fieldwork quality despite the crunched timeline that we had in some projects. Overall, I highly recommend Cimigo for their professionalism.
Over the last 5 years I have worked with Cimigo on a wide array of projects, ranging from market segmentation to product testing. At all times, I found Cimigo to be swift in response and providing high quality insights and business recommendations applicable to our business. Furthermore, I am satisfied with Cimigo fieldwork quality despite the crunched timeline that we had in some projects. Overall, I highly recommend Cimigo for their professionalism.

Tania Desela - Senior Product Manager

It was a pleasure working with Cimigo. Their expertise in consumer and market research was a significant benefit as they assisted our organization in understanding our market position in more detail and validating our hypothesis in go-to-market strategy. We were more than happy with the findings and would definitely recommend Cimigo.
It was a pleasure working with Cimigo. Their expertise in consumer and market research was a significant benefit as they assisted our organization in understanding our market position in more detail and validating our hypothesis in go-to-market strategy. We were more than happy with the findings and would definitely recommend Cimigo.

Thu Phung - CTI Manager

Cimigo is not the type of agency that "fill in the template", but it's customized as per the needs and expectations of Client. Cimigo makes research interesting by applying new approaches to address the business issue, for example, it's known by default that product test is CLT, but at Cimigo, we did group debate for deeper understandings and insights and that resulted as a winning product which is selling well in the market. Last but not least, Cimigo makes me understand that research is a journey, not just a project."
Cimigo is not the type of agency that "fill in the template", but it's customized as per the needs and expectations of Client. Cimigo makes research interesting by applying new approaches to address the business issue, for example, it's known by default that product test is CLT, but at Cimigo, we did group debate for deeper understandings and insights and that resulted as a winning product which is selling well in the market. Last but not least, Cimigo makes me understand that research is a journey, not just a project."

Linda Yeoh - CMI Manager

We have worked with Cimigo over 2 projects in Vietnam. Cimigo has proven to be reliable being on top of the projects, managing different stakeholders and business objectives. They are flexible in terms of ways of working and are able to cope with last minute changes. The research findings (Quant + Qual) have helped us understand Vietnamese in a deeper level, allowing us to make clear decisions to be successful in the market. Thank you Cimigo team for supporting us.
We have worked with Cimigo over 2 projects in Vietnam. Cimigo has proven to be reliable being on top of the projects, managing different stakeholders and business objectives. They are flexible in terms of ways of working and are able to cope with last minute changes. The research findings (Quant + Qual) have helped us understand Vietnamese in a deeper level, allowing us to make clear decisions to be successful in the market. Thank you Cimigo team for supporting us.